AI Trend Watch — Selection Methodology
Selection methodology
Status: experimental, transparent, and corrigible.
This methodology protects AI Trend Watch from becoming an indiscriminate A.I.-news stream. A candidate must be timely, genuinely influential, substantially relevant, and rich enough to support analysis.
Stage 0 — Hard gates
A video normally requires:
- a stable primary URL;
- identifiable speakers and publication date;
- a transcript, captions, or another sufficiently exact record;
- material discussion of A.I., AGI/ASI, alignment, governance, risk, deployment, psychology, or mass psychology;
- enough claim density to justify a report;
- no unresolved provenance problem that prevents responsible attribution.
Failure at Stage 0 normally postpones publication rather than producing a speculative reconstruction.
Stage 1 — Candidate score
Each dimension receives 0–4 points. The score is a triage aid, not a substitute for judgment.
| Dimension | 0 | 2 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recency | no current relevance | recent but not time-sensitive | newly published and central to the current A.I. cycle |
| Virality | no unusual reach | strong reach for the channel or field | exceptional velocity, reach, or cross-platform spread |
| Expert relevance | weak or promotional connection | materially informed participant | direct, high-level technical or institutional responsibility |
| Substantive density | mostly slogans | several analyzable claims | dense causal claims, forecasts, evidence, and remedies |
| Project relevance | little connection | one strong connection | multiple direct links to the ACCM Deep Ethics Project research object |
| Longitudinal value | little revisitable content | some testable predictions | clear forecasts or warnings suitable for later tracking |
Working threshold: normally 18/24 or higher, with both Virality and Project relevance at 3 or higher. The score and evidence should be published with the report. Exceptions require a written reason.
What counts as viral
Virality is contextual. The report should capture, with a date:
- public view count;
- time since publication;
- approximate view velocity when available;
- engagement relative to the channel’s normal audience;
- reuse by other major channels, media, researchers, policymakers, or A.I. communities;
- visible cross-platform spread;
- whether the reach arose from substantive interest or title/controversy effects.
A single universal view threshold would favor entertainment-scale channels and hide field-specific signals. The evidence—not merely the word “viral”—must remain inspectable.
Exclusion and postponement reasons
A candidate may be rejected or postponed when:
- the headline is viral but the content is thin;
- the speaker’s claimed expertise is materially misrepresented;
- no reliable primary source or transcript is available;
- the video mainly repeats a report already covered;
- the relevant claims cannot be separated from promotional material;
- publication would violate the section’s frequency limit;
- the report would add volume rather than high-signal correspondence.
Political inconvenience, criticism of powerful institutions, unfamiliarity, or disagreement with the project are not exclusion criteria.
Selection record
For every published report, preserve:
- date considered and date selected;
- selection score and supporting observations;
- who or what nominated it;
- any material conflict of interest;
- whether an automated discovery system contributed;
- why it outranked other candidates;
- the evidence snapshot used to call it viral.
Rejected candidates do not require a permanent public dossier. Consequential or disputed rejections may be logged when doing so improves accountability rather than producing noise.
Symmetry requirement
The same evidentiary discipline applies whether a speaker:
- agrees or disagrees with the project;
- represents a major A.I. lab or an independent research group;
- warns of catastrophic risk or warns about the harms of catastrophic-risk framing;
- advocates stronger regulation or warns about regulatory capture;
- is celebrated, controversial, or institutionally protected.
Publication gate
Automated systems may assist with discovery, transcription, scoring, source retrieval, and drafting. Final publication requires review for:
- fidelity to the source;
- claim-type separation;
- accurate links and timestamps;
- proportionality;
- provenance;
- correction of hallucinated or inferred details;
- clear separation between the evidence-based report and the ACCM Deep Ethics Project reaction.
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